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  1. #46
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    You guys all should look at what this scientist/climatologist has to say and writing.
    The best are his 15 minutes YouTube videos. Worth your time.
    If this is all true what's coming we should have no children and probably the tipping point is already passed.
    At this stage is no more matter what we/you do because it's too late.
    https://paulbeckwith.net/
    ...also in most of the parts of the world there are insect apocalypse. The numbers of species declining of 80% or more. Many people reporting on different forums of no insects or very limited number of them. An ongoing ecological collapse followed by collapse of our current civilization. Overpopulation, hunger because failing of the crops and disruption of the trade. Then the global dimming effects will be gone and after BOE (Blue Ocean Event) kicks in its going to be a fast drive down the slope.
    Believe it or not. I am only feel lucky. First time. I am not young anymore. Probably won't live long enough to face the worst.
    We are living in the new epoh called anthropocene where the sixth Extinction of life is happening before our own eyes.
    Last edited by Petros.Kyrillos; 05-23-2019 at 09:36 PM.

  2. #47
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    @Petros.Kyrillos -- these terrible facts are what we hear. I've heard something else too: that we don't need to have hope, we need to have courage. No grownups are going to do the right thing -- we're the grownups and the politicians are busy fighting amongst themselves. But not all of them, not at every level. We need to be the heroes. We need to speak up, and act however, wherever, whenever we can.

    I find it hard to look at videos like that though, I just get overwhelmed with grief. My kids can't even watch the new Our Planet series on Netflix.

    Today I will be going to support my daughter and her friends at the climate strike in the town square. I baked cookies. Then I'm going to write a draft of my response to the county climate strategy. I guess I'll try to figure it out, I don't feel like a hero, but the consequences of inaction are so huge.

  3. #48
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    We've entered a point of Cascading failure. Climate changes effects aren't going to linearly grow over the next century, they're going to happen rapidly when something important goes just wrong enough for something bigger to collapse, like say a good sized chunk of the Greenland or West Antarctic Ice Sheets.
    You can call this a positive feedback and domino effect scenario with faster than expected narrative in the corporate media's.

    At 500 parts per million of equivalent carbon dioxide/methane concentration, enough greenhouse gases are currently in the atmosphere to ultimately warm the planet 4-5 degrees C/7-9 F above 1700s temperatures, raise the sea level by 220 feet/67 meters (assuming 1 ppm CO2 equivalent = 1 ft sea level rise, based on past longer-term paleoclimate change response). Those changes are already baked in the planetary systems and there is a time lag between a carbon dioxide/methane emission and maximum warming increases.
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...26/10/3/031001
    Remove significant amounts of soil moisture, leading to the destruction of agriculture. And this is without any other carbon releases or feedbacks. Like seldom mentioned the enthalpy of fusion of a substance, also known as (latent) heat of fusion during the phase transformation. Here as from solid state (ice) to liquid water.

    We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_Anthropocene

    The other issue I would argue is that human ape can't Plan Long-Term, and Here's Why: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...-and-heres-why
    We are like that little frog in the slowly boiling pot of water experiment.

    In the summary that would explain beautifully The Fermi Paradox question. A conflict between the argument that scale and probability seems to favor intelligent life being common in the universe but the total lack of evidence.
    Last edited by Petros.Kyrillos; 05-28-2019 at 08:35 AM.

  4. #49
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    People are naturally selfish. There is no age limit where you lose the right to vote. Young people can't vote until they're 18. This creates a natural bias to shorter term planning. 60 Minutes once did an interview with several groups of senior citizens and told them they are taking out significantly more money in U.S. social security payments than they put into the program (the net payments resulted a return higher than if they invested in the stock market). They then asked if they would trim their receipts to help fund education. All of them said no. I also would note that when states propose zero carbon standards, the AARP almost invariably opposes them because they tend to raise bills. This is probably also why Medicaire exists for people over 65. I'm not sure, but I don't believe there is a federal insurance program for young children.

  5. #50
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    I have stopped flying

    I have stopped flying because I think if lots of people do this it will make a difference.

    My decision to stop flying was inspired by this newspaper article 'Could you give up flying? Meet the no-plane pioneers' in The Guardian:

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2...plane-pioneers

    I realise it is fairly easy for me to stop flying, because I live in the UK and there are train routes available to most places I want to visit in Europe.

    Trains aren't perfect either, but train stations tend to be closer to city centres than airports and there is much less hassle getting bags through security checks. I am still using my lovely Tom Bihn bags to travel!

  6. #51
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    Humanity is presently living well beyond its means. Industrial capitalism places at its center of being a fetishization of profit and therefore economic growth. Everything is based on continuous growth: growth of population, growth of resources, growth of capital, growth of markets… but of course, some of these things are finite.

    We are eating through the resources of the planet, while simultaneously destroying the conditions required to sustain human life.

    The industrial apes failed when they broke away from their troops and focused on individualism.

  7. #52
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    Petros, from what I have read we are not certain to reach the tipping point you refer to (though it is probable). In the meantime, if I have even a slim chance to help, I'm going to take it. Fatalism is fatal in this case.

    @Ruthy Great job! I'm glad the Guardian is publishing stuff. Research shows that people who take climate actions themselves are much more believable as communicators, so you'll be in a good position to spread the word.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by ejvc View Post
    …. I will be looking for stuff on food-waste reduction and encouraging plant-rich diets (veg subsidies?). The newspaper reports that transport accounts for 45% of emissions in the local area and agricultural emissions for nearly as much. They also say solutions for the agricultural sector are difficult because they are practically farm-by-farm solutions. but anyway I'll be looking for solutions that focus on encouraging in-town shopping (instead of the giant malls you have to drive to). I'm also interested in solutions that make car-free life more practicable, such as some kind of services for the collection of larger waste (currently you have to drive to a recycling centre -- and you know it's pretty hard to take an old mattress or a tree branch you've cut on a bike), and repair advice services so more people can make the stuff they have last!
    Being a farmer looking to sell some local wheat for milling, I was invited into a local business starting out as a hub for local foods produced in 50 mile radius of the site. Food's footprint, trusting the farms where food was grown, reducing food waste, and being a bridge to consumer for small farms and consumers with a lean distribution business in-between. That was almost a decade ago and the hub is still going strong. A few things rose to the surface in the discussion that fit your points:

    To eliminate food waste, you must eliminate food choice! Not just using all the food you buy, but the consumer's food must perfectly align with what the farms produce. Prices are high to allow the farmer to meet financial obligations on what the consumer buys so the rest can be discarded or salvage market (sorry, fact of reality). If you want to eliminate the waste, destroy choice. Soup kitchens of depression era fame would have a lot lower waste than a suburban shopper with a grocery store full of food whether they go to the store or another one.

    Carbon emissions of food transport. This business was started with coolers in the back of a Prius. The high fuel mileage with managed trips was offset by relatively low volumes. One discussion point was this cost and the need to deliver to customer's doorstep, illogical, but numbers worked. I don't recall exact numbers but here goes. In the US, the average household is 2.3 people, americans consume 2000lbs food per year, live 4 miles from the grocery store they go to, go to groceries 1.5 per week, drive a 25mpg car, and a semi-tractor trailer carrying 44,000 pounds had a 5-6mpg. The bottom line was a semi could haul food the proverbial 1500 food miles mentioned in the US food system at a lower fuel consumption than the family going grocery shopping locally. We felt we needed to reduce this cost even though we were sourcing food with 50 miles.

    To follow carbon emissions and energy, follow the dollars. We surmised that the easiest everything boiled down to every dollar spent in the end went to energy whether it bought fuel at the gas station or profit to the farm owner as they spent it doing things that took energy.

    Farm by farm solutions and vegetable subsidies. Lots of factors to operating a farm - debt, overhead, weather, scheduling, infrastructure, markets. Subsidies are sizeable in the US and distort the market of farm products. Subsidies encourage a behavior. The subsidy favors corn, plant corn even if it is not needed. The subsidy favors vegtables, vegetables will pile up and rot, but farms will still plant it. I am independent farmer and thinker but farm in the rules that subsidies provide for. A more lengthy debate than here, but my opinion is anytime you let central planning be in charge through subsidies, they will distort the market and cause more problems than solutions they create. Remove subsidies, let the consumers tell the farmers to produce the food with X standards, and get out of the way.
    Last edited by organicfarmer; 05-29-2019 at 03:04 PM.

  9. #54
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    @organicfarmer, this is really interesting, thank you very much for posting. In my town there's a Facebook group where local farmers post what they have and you post back to them how much you would like, then everyone meets in a parking lot for delivery and payment -- this because for some reason the farmers aren't allowed to have a permanent structure but are allowed to deliver to people who have ordered. We've had veggies, beef, honey, wax, poultry. I find the FB part of it annoying but I guess a lot of people are on it. We bike but most people drive, and the farmers of course drive too. I wish I were a better gardener but I don't know very much except that the growing season in Sweden is WAY shorter than I am used to and I can't quite get my head around it.

    Some research here in Sweden with families who gave up their cars showed that one unexpected result was that they didn't go shopping that often, instead they tending to bunch their errands together instead of just nipping out for something. So if you still do drive to the grocery store, then clearly planning to only do errands once a week is a significant savings over going three or four times a week.

    POTENTIAL FOR ACTION IF YOU LIVE IN THE US:
    There are currently two carbon tax plans being considered, and one of them is significantly better -- a bipartisan one sponsored by Florida politicians -- read all about both of them here: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/0...s-ccl-congress -- and then reach out to your representatives to tell them you support the better one.

  10. #55
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    Another choice we can make is regarding pets. Our dogs and cats are responsible for 30% of the carbon footprint of meat production. If American dogs and cats were a country, they would be the fifth largest meat consuming country in the world. And that doesn't count the environmental effects of pet waste--their waste products equal that of 90 million people. Nor does this analysis count the environmental damage done in the manufacture and disposal of pet beds, toys, leashes, etc.

    I'm not saying get rid of pets. I used to be a pet-owner myself. But I do think that it is easy to point fingers at other people's choices and say things like, we shouldn't travel, and harder to look in the mirror and ask whether our own lifestyle choices are contributing to the very real climate catastrophe we are just seeing the beginning of.
    Western Flyer (crimsom) with Absolute strap, Zephyr (black), Medium Cafe Bag (steel/olive), Shop Bags (solar, steel), Large Cafe bag (navy/cayenne), Small café bag (forest), Tristars (steel/solar and indigo/solar),Aeronaut (steel), Side Effects (old skool black cordura, olive parapack), Imagos (steel, cork, wasabi, and aubergine, hemp, steel), Dyneema Western Flyer (Nordic/Steel) and miscellaneous packing cubes, pouches, etc.

  11. #56
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    I have never heard this - do you have sources? Does it mean that 30% of meat animals are bred to be fed to dogs and cats? That seems extremely high to me.

    We all need to both educate ourselves and do whatever action we can. I have read several scientists saying that 3 degrees is the most likely outcome of our current trajectory and a world that is three degrees warmer is not a happy one. Here's what they suggest will happen (just to cities, but there's more) https://www.theguardian.com/cities/n...global-warming

    Four degrees even is not out of the question -- here's a piece from New York Magazine UN Says Climate Genocide Coming. But It?s Worse Than That. -- or, from the same magazine, this one: When Will Climate Change Make the Earth Too Hot For Humans?

    Be warned, it's terribly hard to read these pieces. But it will be worse to live through this, worse to see our children live through it.

    Unless we do something. We must do something. I think we must do EVERYTHING we can.
    Last edited by ejvc; 06-10-2019 at 03:20 PM.

  12. #57
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    Here's the peer reviewed article on pets and carbon footprint: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0181301
    Western Flyer (crimsom) with Absolute strap, Zephyr (black), Medium Cafe Bag (steel/olive), Shop Bags (solar, steel), Large Cafe bag (navy/cayenne), Small café bag (forest), Tristars (steel/solar and indigo/solar),Aeronaut (steel), Side Effects (old skool black cordura, olive parapack), Imagos (steel, cork, wasabi, and aubergine, hemp, steel), Dyneema Western Flyer (Nordic/Steel) and miscellaneous packing cubes, pouches, etc.

  13. #58
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    Regarding pets, at least some canine breeds and female felines can live on a vegetarian diet. A friend of mine has two cats and a dog (all rescues), and they have been happily vegetarian for a number of years. Smilie
    -m

  14. #59
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    Interesting article in the Seattle Times today on the issue of travel by air:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...to-rick-steves
    "Do one thing every day that scares you." - Eleanor Roosevelt
    "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." -Ferris Bueller

  15. #60
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    This has been a good discussion to read. I was a little surprised to read that rail travel in Sweden is up significantly over last year.

    As family gets older I will likely be flying and/or driving more than I am at the moment, but I have taken some partial and full train/bike/ferry trips over the past decade or so. I've been on Amtrak long-distance trains twice: once in 2010 from San Diego - Vancouver (three weeks, multiple stops, flew Vancouver - LAX) and another trip from San Francisco to New York City in 2013 (flew San Diego-Oakland and NYC-SAN). Last November I also completed my first car- and flight-free vacation: to Catalina and Orange County (one-week trip) where I used my folding bike to get around and connect to both rail and ferry. I really enjoyed all of these trips, though there were some non-enjoyable moments during those trips!

    Right now in the USA it's quite difficult to go even medium distances without flying or driving. Driving from NYC to LA is about 2800 miles and the train takes a minimum of 3224 miles (Southwest Chief + Lake Shore Limited). NYC to LA is about 70-72 hours right now assuming everything is on time. A non-stop 125mph train would still take over 24 hours assuming it was legally allowed. (Trains in the USA generally can't go much faster than 80mph; the Acela can but rarely reaches their top speed.) Los Angeles to San Francisco by train is feasible in a day, but it takes a minimum of 10 hours and some of the trip is by bus. California's High Speed Rail project should cut that time down to 3-4 hours, if it's ever completed.

    I could probably only take one flight a year with some planning, but my chances of doing so would go up if I moved to the Northeast US or the Pacific NW where rail is frequent enough to make it more possible. Hopefully the USA will get on board with changing how we travel, but at the moment I'm highly skeptical.
    Last edited by allanorn; 06-12-2019 at 05:38 PM. Reason: Adding clarification to USA train speeds

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