Cancel or go to Europe in April

[TKS]

Mandatory shut down in Italy:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238

[bchaplin]

I'd love to know the answer to this. I have two important family trips planned, one to South America with my niece in July. I don't want to put anyone in danger, but also don't want to miss bringing people together.

My workplace, a university in Boston, has essentially banned all official travel, international or domestic. They are discouraging us from traveling personally as well. Contingency plans are being put into place; meetings and seminars are banned; an international conference starting Monday has now "gone virtual". It all feels very unsettling. Right now I'm just taking a wait-and-see mode.

[GrussGott]

If this helps, here's what I hear the American Hospital Association is preparing for, 2020 CV19 vs 2019 Flu:

2020 COVID vs 2019 Flu
96M vs 35.5M infections
4.8M vs 490k hospitalizations
1.9M vs 49k ICU admissions
480k vs 34k deaths

[AlaskaGirl]

Greetings,
Traverers, check your trip insurance. Many policies will not pay in relation to anything to do with the corona virus. If you haven't bought trip insurance yet, make sure the policy you buy has the coverage you need. elisa

[Lani]

Italy went to lockdown in 18 days. Things are truly in flux, and for those of us in the U.S., the best thing to do is to practice social distancing (avoid large athletic events, concerts, etc.), and washing our hands.

Remember -- we ALL need to help push down the curve so our health care professionals and hospitals aren't overwhelmed all at once! It WILL hit us, but we can help lower and delay the worst of it.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...-against-time/

[Frank II]

Whether or not someone travels is an individual decision. Some believe that if they travel they are sure to get the virus but if they stay home they are safe.

Nope.

Unless you plan to seal yourself in at home for the next month or so, you can get the virus anywhere. The next time you go to the supermarket, you coud touch something that someone else before you touched who is carrying the virus.

I spoke to a friend this morning who was in Berlin and planning to fly to Rome today. He had not heard of yesterday's lockdown in all of Italy. He canceled his flight and is now headed towards London. He said Berlin was business as usual with no one wearing face masks and hand wipes available everywhere. Crowds were thinner.

Take the same precautions while traveling that you would at home. Wash your hands often with soap and water. (I now carry soap leaves in case a pubic restroom is out of soap.) Use a paper towel to open the bathroom door. Use hand sanitizer when you can't wash your hands. Carry wipes to wipe down your tray table, seat, shopping cart and in your hotel room such things as the remote, phone, light switches, and anything you touch that is not normally cleaned. Avoid crowded areas but not public places. And yes, avoid areas that are under lockdowns.

If you have underlying health conditions, or are older, you have to give your movements a second thought. And if you have any other the early symptoms, even if you think it is just a cold, go see your doctor.

I have a trip planned within the U.S in three weeks. I have to go but I will take precautions. I'm supposed to leave for Europe in the middle of April. As of now, I'm going but I have replaced my scheduled time in Italy with somewhere else. I realize that I need to be flexible and may have to make more changes as I go. The virus knows no borders.

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[autolycus]

Whether or not someone travels is an individual decision. Some believe that if they travel they are sure to get the virus but if they stay home they are safe.

Nope.

Unless you plan to seal yourself in at home for the next month or so, you can get the virus anywhere. The next time you go to the supermarket, you coud touch something that someone else before you touched who is carrying the virus.

I spoke to a friend this morning who was in Berlin and planning to fly to Rome today. He had not heard of yesterday's lockdown in all of Italy. He canceled his flight and is now headed towards London. He said Berlin was business as usual with no one wearing face masks and hand wipes available everywhere. Crowds were thinner.

Take the same precautions while traveling that you would at home. Wash your hands often with soap and water. (I now carry soap leaves in case a pubic restroom is out of soap.) Use a paper towel to open the bathroom door. Use hand sanitizer when you can't wash your hands. Carry wipes to wipe down your tray table, seat, shopping cart and in your hotel room such things as the remote, phone, light switches, and anything you touch that is not normally cleaned. Avoid crowded areas but not public places. And yes, avoid areas that are under lockdowns.

If you have underlying health conditions, or are older, or are a significant caregiver of or must come in regular contact with someone described by either you have to give your movements a second thought. And if you have any other the early symptoms, even if you think it is just a cold, go see your doctor.

I have a trip planned within the U.S in three weeks. I have to go but I will take precautions. I'm supposed to leave for Europe in the middle of April. As of now, I'm going but I have replaced my scheduled time in Italy with somewhere else. I realize that I need to be flexible and may have to make more changes as I go. The virus knows no borders.

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I think I agree with all of this, but I have made one very important addition in bold within the quote.

[kathryn]

If you have underlying health conditions, or are older, you have to give your movements a second thought.

Yeah, this is what's motivating me to reassess because I have asthma. Even a domestic work trip mid-April is looking dicey to me right now.

[nsh]

I respectfully disagree that because viruses have no borders that movement anywhere is no less or more risky if you are a healthy younger adult. While viruses have no borders, medical capacities do vary across and within borders. If one chooses to visit a country where the medical system is at or nearing capacity (or is not robust to begin with) and you do contract COVID-19 you may be less likely to receive medical assistance and/or you may be shifting the distribution of scarce medical resources away from already vulnerable people in those places. In places where the infection rate follows a flatter curve (and people are taking protective measures) then medical facilities will be less likely to be overwhelmed. If you are in a “flatter area” where people are following protective measures then outcomes will be better for you and the most vulnerable in the community. My thought is that the guiding decision should really be about the most vulnerable in any society and whether or not my traveling, infecting others unknowingly, or potentially getting ill will make others that really need help less likely to receive help.

I do a lot of work in refugee camps and right now in Lebanon, which is facing a deep economic crisis (they just defaulted on foreign debt payment) and people can barely afford bread (There were actually people starving prior to COVID-19); there are very high infection rates and the most vulnerable (Palestinian and Syrian refugees) are suffering terribly with higher death rates due to underlying poorer nutrition and illnesses. I doubt many people are thinking- lets book a trip to Lebanon right now!- but it reminds me that there are pockets of vulnerable people in countries all over the world, including in the US, whose limited access to health means that those of us in a position to reduce the likelihood of “peaking” infections and overwhelming medical capacities should do everything we can to help others By engaging in simple acts like hand washing and social distancing. I found this simple chart to be very helpful in thinking about medical capacity: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...65328074153986

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YGT...of8WLTLcP/view

The infographic image was created by Drew Harris.

[Frank II]

The question was whether the OP should go to Europe and not countries with limited healthcare. Of course there is a difference.

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[nsh]

Most places do not have a system as robust as one might imagine (whether it be in Europe or even within the US). I thought this article did a great job articulating the realities: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ything/607675/


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[flitcraft]

There is one big difference between staying at home and traveling. Sure, maybe the odds of getting sick could be the same, but the consequences are entirely different. What if a lockdown gets imposed? If you're at home, it might be boring of course, but you're in your own home. If you're traveling, can you afford weeks in a hotel somewhere, with no cooking facilities? If you don't speak the language, are you comfortable getting minimal information while all this is going on? And if a lockdown is imposed on your home town, how long will it be before you can get home? I have several trips planned for April and May, but given infection rates, I suspect that I'll be cancelling them and riding this out at home...

[backpack]

I believe that the prudent thing is to do everything virtual until the summer.

That thing thrives in cold weather and hopefully will not survive the heatwaves.

The weather in usually enchanting in late summer/early fall all across Europe, better to reschedule for that time of year.


In light of the surprise and unfortunately, deadly tornado in Nashville, the weather, all over the world, might decide to not cooperate and give u a worldwide difficult time..

[GrussGott]

If you don't know Dr. Osterholm, he's spent his entire multi-decade career studying these very diseases and here's his view (my summary):

(1.) COVID19 is primarily transmissible by breathing, so hand washing is not likely to help in this case (n95 masks will)

(2.) COVID19 is highly contagious (10,000x more virus particles in those infected than SARS)

(3.) COVID19 patients are infectious even when they don't have symptoms

(4.) COVID19 can be deadly in adults no matter your age, but probability goes up with underlying conditions

(5.) COVID19 will not go away with heat (e.g., MERS is plenty viable in the Arabian Peninsula), and no vaccine anytime soon

You can hear him here (Even if you don't like Joe Rogan, I believe it's VERY important for everyone to watch, Dr Osterholm is as authoritative as anyone on the planet - if nothing else, start at 8:00):



In short, the more you're out and about (especially in groups where there's little ventilation - e.g., bus, shuttle, jetway, uber, et al), the more probability you have of becoming infected. Further, Dr. Osterholm believes China will see a resurgence which will launch another wave.

[RosemaryOrchard]

Yesterday Austria, Czech Republic and some other countries announced the closure of universities in and the latter case schools until Easter. Which effectively means 5 weeks as there's usually 1-2 weeks holiday around Easter. This is preventative, but I would consider changing your travel plans that are scheduled before Easter at a minimum, while you may not be more likely "catch it" here (in fact you might be less likely because of the measures and number of people being tested), I'm sure you'd rather be in the comfort of your own home if you were to be affected, instead of a foreign country. I've ended up in hospital in Poland with norovirus before, and while I can't fault the staff or level of care, having no clue where you are or what's going on does not make these situations any better.